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Prediction for CME (2024-08-07T19:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-07T19:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32612/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The potential source is an M5.0 flare peaking at 2024-08-07T18:54Z from AR 3777. The start of the CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2024-08-07T17:23Z to 23:09Z. Dimming, opening field lines are seen in SDO AIA 193, and the eruption appears to be directed towards the southeast. A possible faint, separate halo component may also be seen in early frames of SOHO LASCO C2. Arrival signature (possibly the arrival of this CME, 2024-08-07T14:24Z CME and/or 2024-08-07T03:24Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field components, with B total reaching 11 nT. Solar wind speed increases from 380 km/s to 420 km/s and eventually to over 450 km/s. There is a temporary drop in density to below 1 p/cc (suspect bad density data), followed by an increase of density to just under 10 p/cc. The end of the arrival signature for this CME is possibly ~2024-08-11T12:00Z, where there is possibly an interaction region or sheath between both this ICME and the ICME following it (per LASSOS team's Carlos Peres Alanis).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T11:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-10T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2024 Aug 08 1239 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40808
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 08 Aug 2024, 1238UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2024  10CM FLUX: 325 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Aug 2024  10CM FLUX: 335 / AP: 025 PREDICTIONS FOR 10 Aug 2024  10CM FLUX: 340 / AP: 025

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was at moderate to high levels over the last 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares being recorded.
The strongest was an M5 flare peaking at 18:54 UTC on August 07. This flare was associated with NOAA AR 3777 and also had an associated Type II radio emission recorded at 18:48 UTC. This region also produced 3 other M-class flares. NOAA AR 3774 produced an M4.5 flare peaking at 13:40 UTC.  These two regions, NOAA AR 3774 (Beta-Gamma-Delta) and NOAA AR 3777 (Beta-Gamma- Delta), increased in size and complexity. NOAA AR 3779 decayed into a plage region. NOAA AR3780 (Beta-Gamma-Delta) is the largest and one of the most complex regions on the disk (beta gamma delta) but produced only C-class flares in the period. A new region emerged near 3781 and was numbered NOAA AR3783. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A faint halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data, first seen around 14:36 UTC August 07. It is possible that this is a combination of a back side event as well as a CME associated with the M4.5 flare peaking at 13:40 UTC from NOAA 3774.  A second slow CME directed to the south-east was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 19:00. This may be related to the M5 flare associated with NOAA AR3777. Analysis of these events are ongoing but initial analysis suggest that both could have an Earth directed component which may impact Earth from August 10.

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Lead Time: 27.20 hour(s)
Difference: 4.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-08-09T08:43Z

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